Asia: Portfolio flows showing signs of stability - TDS
Mitul Kotecha, Senior Emerging Markets Strategist at TD Securities, notes that following a tumultuous few months Asian portfolio flows are showing signs of stability, albeit still someway off last year's inflows.
Key Quotes
“We calculate that aggregate Asian equity outflows total $23.8n year to date while bond inflows total $34.8bn (ex-Korea $1.2bn).”
“Both our bond and equity bond flow momentum measures have turned positive. Stronger portfolio inflows correspond with an improvement in local bond markets, equity and FX performance.”
“After suffering from significant bleeding over recent months Taiwan, South Korea and to a lesser extent India, have seen a recent strong turnaround in equity flows.”
“Although foreign bond flows to Korea have remained strong, Asian bond inflows ex-Korea have only recently turned positive.”
“Indonesia and India will find comfort in an improved portfolio flow picture given their current account deficits.”
“Indonesia's foreign bond ownership is high at close to 38% and the IDR should benefit from the fact that bond inflows to the country have finally turned positive ytd.”
“Although ytd bond and equity flows to India are still negative they are improving, which ought to give some comfort to the INR.”
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