Australia: Policy and leadership malaise - AmpGFX
Greg Gibbs, Analyst at Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd, notes that the AUD has dropped and recovered to a significant degree on Australian political upheaval in the ruling Liberal-National Coalition (LNC).
Key Quotes
“The party strife has been a combination of a battle between the hard right and moderates in the main conservative political coalition in Australia, and a personal act of revenge where the former PM and party leader, Tony Abbott, appears to have been driven to topple his nemesis and the most recent former PM Malcolm Turnbill.”
“The issue for the AUD is that the battle scuttled what appeared to be a reasonable compromise on providing a longer-term energy policy that might help provide the certainty needed to encourage investment in the sector.”
“The Australian economy has had to weather a spike in and volatile electricity prices in recent years blamed on inconsistent policy on carbon emissions discouraging investment in the sector over the last decade.”
“Neither major party has been able to command a clear majority in parliament for several election cycles and the Senate (lower house) has been hopelessly splintered into special interest groups.”
“The most recent leadership battle appears to have been the worst kind of pointless politics at the expense of policy in a decade of pointless politics.”
“The new PM and LNC party leader, Scott Morrison that won a party vote on Friday, has landed at the head of a party that appears to lack a clear economic policy platform around six months from a national election.”
“It is going to be hard for him to convince the public that he has the confidence of his party and a vision and drive to set a consistent and sustainable policy direction for the nation.”
“His party members will remain more concerned by holding onto their seats in the next election, and Morrison will, of course, be under attack from the main opposition Labor party as the latest leader of a divided rabble.”
“Both major parties, and the minor parties - the left Greens and far-right One Nation - are likely to be drawn to populist agendas and the 12-hour news cycle to win the next election. So the chances remain low that Australia will quickly recover from a decade of policy malaise.”
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