Trade Wars and Sanctions Dominating Markets, Effects to Persist

TRADE WAR NEWS AND ANALYSIS:

• US-China trade tensions and the threat of US sanctions on Japan, Russia and Turkey are continuing to influence markets.
• The Japanese Yen is among the beneficiaries and could well strengthen further, while the Russian Ruble and Turkish Lira plunge.

TRADE WARS AND SANCTIONS IN FOCUS AS US STRETCHES ITS MUSCLES

The prospect of further US tariffs on imported goods from China and sanctions against several other nations continues to drive markets, with the safe-haven Japanese Yen among those to benefit and USDJPY threatening to break lower.

USDJPY PRICE CHART, DAILY TIMEFRAME (MARCH 19 – AUGUST 9, 2018)

The escalating US-China trade war remains the dominant theme but Japan, Russia and Turkey are all in the spotlight too. The US and Japan are preparing for talks on the threat that it will be penalized for buying oil from Iran while Russia faces sanctions after the US decided Moscow was to blame for the use of a nerve agent against a double agent living in the UK. In addition, Turkey faces sanctions if it refuses to release a detained American pastor.

That has resulted in slumps for the Russian Ruble and the Turkish Lira, while the Japanese Yen has resumed its role as a safe-haven when market tensions rise.

This has all led to a fall in USDJPY, with the Yen boosted too by pressure on the Bank of Japan to move away from its ultra-accommodative monetary policy.

USDJPY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

From a technical perspective, USDJPY has now fallen below support from both a rising trendline and the 50-day moving average, suggesting further losses to come. To the downside, the levels to watch out for are the July 4/5 lows at 110.28, the 100-day moving average at 110.20 and the June 25/26 lows at 109.37. To the upside, resistance lies at the 112.16 August 1 high.

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