UK: Hard deadline for a Brexit divorce deal reaching - Rabobank

Re-marriage may not be easy, but divorce could prove even harder is still the official line that the EU summit that starts on October 18 is regarded as the hard deadline for a Brexit divorce deal, but the lack of progress over the past couple of months makes this particularly difficult to attain, according to analysts at Rabobank.

Key Quotes

“Negotiations between the UK and the European Union remain stuck on the Irish border conundrum: both parties want to avoid a hard border, but no one knows how to reconcile this with their red lines.”

“This morning, Bloomberg is running a story that senior officials are now privately admitting that the timetable is slipping. As it stands, the aim is for a deal by mid-November, which according to Cabinet Office minister David Lidington, would be manageable for both.”

“The European Council would then have to schedule an emergency meeting to finalise the withdrawal agreement, but the UK is betting that the rising pressure would basically force European leaders into calling such a meeting.”

“Whether PM Theresa May will also be present at that meeting remains to be seen, as it is speculated that the four-day Conservative Party conference in late September – early October will set the stage for a leadership challenge. Her former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, may feel confident enough to launch such a challenge thanks to his popularity among grassroots Tory members, who are far from pleased with May’s Chequers Brexit proposals.”

“Just ahead of this, the September Labour Party conference is likely to draw the attention of the market as well given speculation that certain factions could attempt to bolster Labour’s anti-Brexit standing. In any case, sterling is in for yet another choppy and difficult period.”

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