USD/JPY: Prices May Fall as Resistance is Tested

SHORT POSITIONS RISE 5.2% OVERNIGHT

USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 57.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.35 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jul 23 when USDJPY traded near 111.439; price has moved 0.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 11.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.2% higher than yesterday and 11.7% lower from last week.

USD/JPY SENTIMENT SUGGEST PRICES MAY CONTINUE TO FALL

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further modest bearish USDJPY trading bias.

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