Yen Drop May Continue, Euro Likely to Overlook PMI Data

TALKING POINTS – YEN, EURO, STOCKS, QUADRUPLE WITCHING

• Yen down as Asia Pacific shares follow Wall Street higher
• Risk-on mood aims to continue, ‘quadruple witching’ eyed
• Euro unlikely to find lasting cues in PMI survey roundup

The Japanese Yen traded lower in otherwise quiet Asia Pacific trade as regional bourses followed Wall Street higher, putting pressure on the perennial anti-risk currency. Easing trade war worries inspired sharp gains in US shares, with the benchmark S&P 500 rising to the highest level on record.

RISK REBOUND MAY CONTINUE, QUADRUPLE WITCHING EYED

More of the same may be on offer in the final hours of the trading week. Futures tracking the FTSE 100 are pointing conspicuously higher ahead of the opening bell in London, hinting the risk-on mood has scope for follow-through. Conviction ahead of the weekly close may be limited however.

The possible impact of so-called “quadruple witching” also bears mention. This means that today will bring the simultaneous expiration of stock index futures, stock index options, stock options & single stock futures. That can bring kneejerk volatility as portfolios are rebalanced, muddying price action.

EURO MAY LOOK PAST PMI DATA

Eurozone PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The region-wide composite gauge is expected to print at 54.5 in September, leaving the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth unchanged from the prior month.

Economic data outcomes out of the currency bloc have increasingly disappointed relative to forecasts in recent weeks, opening the door for a downside surprise. That may not have a significant impact on the Euro however considering its limited implications for ECB policy, with the central bank on autopilot through year-end.

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